Author: SK

Love in Monte Carlo

A popular class of randomized algorithms is what are called “Monte Carlo algorithms”. These algorithms are applied to decision problems and give a “yes/no” answer. The peculiarity with Monto Carlo Algorithms is that if they say “no” you can be sure that the answer is “no” while if they say yes, the answer is “yes” with only a certain probability! The most “popular” such algorithm is the Primality Test which uses Fermat’s Little Theorem.

I have found an interesting practical instance of a Monte Carlo algorithm. It is regarding the decision I’ve been trying to make over the last two months – is she the ideal girl for me? From my “experiences” I’ve found that the algorithm I use for this is Monte Carlo!

I input a girl into my algorithm and ask it if there is a possibility of a relationship with her. If it says no, I can completely believe it and get on with life. A ‘yes’, however, means trouble. It means there is a possibility of a relationship, but there is no guarantee. An MBA like me is actually supposed to revel in ambiguity, but what the hell.

The way computer scientists get around this peculiarity of this algorithm is by running it multiple times. They define a probability limit (say 95%) and say that “if I am 95% sure that it is a yes, then I’ll take it as a yes”. Now, the number of times the algorithm needs to be run in order to get 95% confidence is determined by the probability that the algorithm is right when it says “yes”.

What has been happening in my case is that this probability is not too high (from historical data). Hence, I need to run it a really large number of times in order to reach the required confidence interval. Consequently, it is taking a fairly long time (there have been occasions in the past when the algorithm kept saying yes for 2 months and then finally said “no”).

Wanted: A better algorithm! Hopefully a Las Vegas.

Writing

Yesterday, walks into my room when I’m blogging and says that given the volume I churn out, I should rather try and write a book. He went on to say “just a 1000 words a day and you can probably become a bestselling author, a la Robert Jordan”.

Problem with writing a book is not that I can’t write 1000 words a day. It is that I can’t write 1000 words every day on the same damn thing. I would rather write 1000 words a day, on three different topics every day. Maintaining a general blog like this gives more freedom to my thought!

A month ago, I had thought of opening another blog, and segmenting my posts topicwise. I can classify most of my posts as Personal (today I got a crush on someone types), Descriptive (where I write about what I had for lunch), Topical (where I write about “issues”) and General, which doesn’t fit into any of the above three.

I think the audience for personal and descriptive posts is vastly different from that for Topical and General posts. So it would have made a lot of sense to maintain two journals. However, that would put constraints on the number of posts I put on each; I’d force myself to write in one of the journals even though I didn’t have any good ideas for it; the flow would’ve been lost.

So this is the way the journal remains. A chow-chow of many different kinds of posts. If not anything else, It will give freedom to my thought.

And yeah, in my break between placements and starting of job, let me see if I can come up with some good ideas for longer prose.

From a bride’s point of view

This season’s weddings are scheduled to start next Friday. We have around 180 brides to get married this time, and it is special because I happen to be one of them. We hear from our elders that the number of grooms coming this time is much more than last year, so we’ll have greater choice.

Having had a look at various grooms who came to show themselves off over the course of the last month, I have taken a very serious interest in five of them. One of them (people say he’s a little mad) has rejected me but the others seem to be interested in me. I have also told six others that I might be interested in them, though I’m not particularly interested. Hoping for the best.

There seem to be a lot of changes in our village due to the impending weddings. There seems to be a pall of tension and gloom all over the place. It is not very surprising, given that it is a matter of our lives. There is nothing worse than getting stuck with a bad husband, though I must say that in our community, divorce is fairly common.

In order to make themselves more attractive, some of our girls have been visiting the witch who lives in the end of the village who can change the way people look. They say that a visit to her is important in order to improve their chances of finding the husband they want. Some of them have come back looking much better than usual, though most of them have started looking really funny. Maybe the grooms like them this way, who knows. I, however, am not interested in this witch business and am hoping to make an impression by other means.

Maybe I was really immature last year, but I had written that ours is a very united tribe. However, a year later, having come of age, I beg to differ. Girls here seem to have changed overnight. We are all competing for the same grooms, you see, so there is no reason for us to cooperate.

People have generally started ignoring me. Some of them will be discussing about some groom, but when I reach the spot, they abruptly stop talking. Then, our elders have passed on some ancient manuscripts reading which is supposed to increase our chances of impressing the grooms. You don’t know how tough a time I had locating it. Finally one kind elderly girl shared it with me. I’m so grateful to her!

It is so funny, so weird. We all grew up together in this village, played together, did everything together, but now they don’t like me. In fact, I don’t think they like each other also. We all came to this place to find grooms, they say, and if we think you might beat us to our favorite groom, you have no right to be friends with us.

Anyways, I’m eagerly awaiting for the D-day. When my four favorite guys come here to pick brides. I sincerely hope at least one of them likes me. And yeah, I guess I need to get back to those manuscripts less the other girls beat me to it!


PS: You can find the full story of the weddings here.

Eeteez over

Ten minutes ago, I mailed the second assignment of Financial Time Series analysis to the Prof. What has followed is a mixture of emotions… jubilation, relief, sadness, nostalgia… not able to describe accurately how I’m feeling right now.

Yeah, my MBA is over. Officially. Only evaluation (i’m sure of passing all courses) and the convocation remains. It’s been a good two years. Never once regretted coming to IIMB. I would be wrong if I say that I’ve never felt bad, it’s been quite a roller coaster ride.

There have been these numerous occasions when I’ve felt I’m a misfit in IIMB. There are these occasions where my topper mentality (even though I’m not a topper) has resulted in some unpleasant differences of opinion. I’ve succeeded in pissing off a large majority of my batchmates, for various reasons, at various points of time. There have been these occasions when I’ve sat on the parapet near my room, head hanging, wondering if I have a future at all.

Then there was the class picnic to Shivanasamudram last August. And the advertising competition the day after, when I directed a “mad ad” for the first time ever. The inter-section sports. Scholarship. Summer placements. England. G Base. J First. “Wing fart”. Wing Cricket. Tsepak. Futsal – 3 parttimers beating 3 institute team players 14-3. Basketball at L^2. Parties at L^2. Getting drunk – twice. Some of the people here. Blogging.

Apologies for whatever I’ve missed out from these lists.

Sniff Sniff

Jai

It is one of those words like ‘set’. It can be a noun, verb, adjective or adverb. The reason you don’t find it in any dictionary is because the lexicographists (or whatever) are too lazy to list out all its meanings and connotations. The reason it is not used very widely is that most people are not able to comprehend its profundity, and hence are afraid to use it.

The most commonly used form of the word is as a noun, more specifically as a proper noun. It is a quite common first name, especially in North India. Famous people with the name include that loser hero in Sholay who used a coin with heads on both sides so that he could die, thus avoiding marrying a widow! Then, there was this supposed “excellent all-rounder” called Jai P Yadav, unfortunately for whom Souravda got sacked as captain at the wrong time.

Another noun form in which the word is used is in a context such as “jai happens”. I’m not too sure though whether this should be classified as noun or adverb (could someone good at English enlighten me?). “Jai happens” is one of those really unmitigated sentences which manages to capture a lot of meaning in just two short words. This phrase was thus invented so that one could save the trouble of saying a whole paragraph when one could use just two words. It is for this very reason that I can’t explain the meaning of this phrase here. Guess it would suffice if i say that it is a very potent phrase.

Then, there is the commonly used verb form, where it is approximately synonymous with death. Something like “Rajiv Gandhi jai” implies Rajiv Gandhi is no more. Another common usage as a verb is “FTSA Assignment Jai” which means that the FTSA Assignment is so tough that you’re giving up on it. Once again, note that it is not synonymous with death, it is much more insightful than that. The whole reason for the word to exist.

This time, I’m sure that it is an adverb when I use it in the context of “Atticus Finch told jai”. Note that in certain contexts it can be used interchangeably with “Atticus Finch jai”. However, this is a restricted usage, as “Atticus Finch told Jai” has more connotations than just Atticus Finch dying. The most commonly used context where you say that is when Atticus Finch was supposed to meet you, probaby to team up with you in a quiz, or to give you money and suddenly decides not to turn up.

The least used form of this word, however, is as an adjective. It can be used in the context of “this is a Jai assignment”, where jai stands for “extremely tough” or “killing”. However, this is so complex a form that very few people have actually managed to understand the word in this context, thus leading to the low usage.

I have tried my best to explain to you the great insights that this simple three-letter word offers but I must confess that the English language is hardly sufficient to delve into the intricacies of it. I tender my humble apologies for the same. Oh no, I had almost forgotten to tell you one of the most important (and popular) usages of this word.

Bhaarat maata ki jai!

Final term syndrome

Had what are probably the last two exams of my life yesterday and today. Was characterized by a total lack of enthu among the people, and early walkouts.

Yesterday was Financial Time Series Analysis, which most people had little clue of. Most people had given up on the course in the first couple of weeks itself and I don’t think too many people bothered to study for the exam. Everyone knew they are going to get killed.

Rang De Basanti talks about a third kind of people, the kind of people who die laughing. And that we did, as we laughed our way into the exam hall, waiting to be massacred. The fun started two minutes into the exam when a German guy walked out to a thundering applause.

It was a matter of a few minutes before the hall was half empty, with even toppers like taking the long walk back. It did help, however, that there were a few easy multiple choice questions, so everyone had an opportunity to open their accounts at least!

Today we had IAFPR, with 20 short answer questions, a really good question paper compared to the crap the prof had dished out in the mid-term (opinion-based MCQs). One hero decided to walk in 10 minutes late, and to his discomfiture, wasn’t let in! Reason being had decided to walk out after one minute! After answering maybe a couple of questions!

Anyways I’ve seen the last of that exam hall. Nostalgia is yet to set in. However, I have a FTSA assignment to complete before I can shout “i’m an MBA”.

Queen of hearts

You are playing a game of bridge. You bid for, say, “six spades”. The lead happens, dummy comes down (people who don’t know bridge just assume that the first few cards have come down to the table) and you take stock of the situation.

Given the bidding, your cards, your partner’s cards and the lead, you figure out that there is only very slim chance that you will make the contract you have bid for. After careful analysis you see that the only chance for you to win is if the Queen of Hearts is with West. What the bridge experts advice you to do in such a case is to just assume that the queen of hearts is with west and play on.

If she were indeed with west, you will make the contract; else there was no way you were going to make the contract anyway.

Extending this to life, if you think the only way you can achieve something is if a certain thing happens and you don’t know if the certain thing is happening or not, just assume that the thing is happening and get on with life. If the thing did happen, you accomplish your goal. If it didn’t there was no way you were going to accomplish it anyway!

Strong learnings hobbies have to offer.

UD and the Masala Dosa

A few months back, before went on exchange, we thought of doing a survey of “delivery systems in south indian fast food (read darshini) restaurants in Bangalore”. And maybe publishing a paper on it. However, thanks to our combined laziness, it’s never happened. Nevertheless thought of writing what I’ve been observing in a few restaurants I’ve been visiting.

Upahara Darshini (UD) heralded a new paradigm in dining in Bangalore. Set up in the early 90’s, it was perhaps the first darshini in Bangalore, which till then had mostly sit-down type restaurants. During the initial few years, there was hardly any standing space there and we used to go there only to collect takeaways. Of course, I must also mention here that UD also started a new packaging funda for takeaways (using cardboard boxes) and even started charging for the packaging. And people willingly paid.

Business has always been brisk at UD. Till about a couple of years ago, they used to sell a Masala Dosa at around Rs. 10 (while it was at least 20-30% higher in other darshinis). In a survey done by the Times of India in 1998, it was found to be the restaurant with the highest daily turnover in Bangalore. It also diversified quickly, opening Roti Ghar in 98 and then the UD residency and the UD Jayanagar in the last one and a half years.

After the whole lot of dilly-dallying, let me finally come to the point I wanted to make. It is regarding the masala dosa manufacturing process at UD. In most fast food restaurants, the masala dosa is a “made to order” item. Given the fact that the dosa has to be consumed really hot for it to be tasty, and the fact that it doesn’t take too long to make, the strategy makes perfect sense.

UD, however, has totally turned the paradigm on its head and makes to stock masala dosas. The clincher here is the demand. Though UD is known more for its idlis and kadubus and the shavige bath, the masala dosa there seems so immensely popular that they can afford to make it to stock!

While waiting for my dosa the other day I noticed how the system works. There are two huge tawas at UD, one of which is dedicated for making Masala Dosa, which is the “vanilla product” while there is a used for the non-standard products such as rava dosa, set dosa, etc. And the tawa is large enough to make 24 dosas at a time (6×4). And every 5 minutes 24 dosas are churned out and quickly lapped up by hungry customers.

One process change on the customer side that the restaurant has made is the point at which the coupons are collected. Typically, in most darshinis, you hand over the coupon to the “waiter” and then wait for the dosa to be made. Here, due to the huge crowd and the continuous manufacture, the coupon is collected at the time of delivery of the dosa. Another thing is that they usually don’t accede to “special requests” such as “extra roast” or “roast only on one side” or “no red chutney” (though the last time we went my dad managed to get a dosa without the red chutney). Once again, helps in faster manufacture and delivery.

Really interesting to see such a beautiful system that these guys have evolved, all because the demand characteristics of the restaurant are so different from that of the others. Think it would be a good idea to ask an operations prof to write a case study on it.

By the way, what I described above is for the UD in Jayanagar 3rd Block. However, the same process is also followed in the UD on DVG Road (the original UD). And I must also add that the coffee at both places also rocks. At 3 bucks for the extra-large glass of strong filter coffee, it’s definitely worth more than a few visits.

PS: Some day in the next one month, I want to do a vegetarian food tour of Bangalore, and come up with a “vegetarian food tour guide to Bangalore”, similar to what Dibyo has done for not-necessarily-vegetarian food.

Water privatization

, , , two others and I initially thought we are going to fraud our project in Infrastructure Appraisal, Financing, Privatization and Regulation (IAFPR). We decided that each of us would put in 4 man hours of work where we would each come up with 4 pages of report and put it together. It just so happened that in my four hours of effort, I got a fairly decent insight which I thought I should share with you.

from what i’ve read up over the last one hour, whenever a public utility provides water supply, a large part of the population (typically the poor) gets left out. however, those who get it get it at affordable rates. the left out have to rely on unsafe alternate sources for their thing.

now, when water services get privatized, prices shoot up. typically let’s say it doubles. however, the terms of contract, if implemented (and they have been in most cases), ensures water supply to 100% of the population, including the poorest.

what is the difference in the situation here? poor who had absolutely no access earlier now have THE OPTION of buying safe water, though at a high price. and who is paying for this option? it’s the haves. people who were anyways getting water, but who now have to pay extra for it. and most of them can actually afford to pay the extra amount (like i’ve paid a couple of bills for my dad, it’s of the order of 100 bucks. so a 100% increase won’t affect me too badly).

the only losers in this deal are the poor who anyway had access to water supply. they get no extra service, but at a much higher cost. if there’s some way in which these people can be compensated, water privatization is the way to go!

of course, one thing i forgot to mention, this scheme will work only if the entire water bill is variable, without any fixed components (else people who won’t want to exercise option would get screwed)

Given another exam in the afternoon I have to now translate this argument to more formal language and put it in a report in 15 minutes. Hope to do a decent job of it.

Bay were sea none mug nay

Once upon a time, I thought it was bad to swear. Never swore except for some occasions like “I swear on my mother I didn’t nick the ball”. Even in times of absolute necessity, I used to write “f***” or say “cluck”. When friends tried to teach me swear words, I used to quietly listen and digest them, never to use them.


Somehow, IIT changed all that. Perhaps it was the frustration of the not-so-spectacular performance in acads and otherwise. Perhaps it was because I thought I was this pseud “big city boy” as compared all those country Gults and HTs, and swearing was a way to assert this “psuedaapa”. Perhaps I had a Vijaya-High-School-thoroughbred roomie who explained to me the intricacies of Kannada swear words.

Irrespective of the reason, I began to swear big time. Can’t talk for too long without swearing. Refer to most people as “bugger”. Also helps my swearing cause that the most common word used to call out to people in my wing is “whore”. I’ve started swearing so much that I even swear while talking to my parents. Every sentence to my mom begins with a “nimmajji“. And she retaliates in kind.

Then, for a long time I had this funda that I shouldn’t swear in front of girls. Some weird “morals” I attributed this to, but it was true. However, IIM changed all that. When you have women around who don’t think twice before abusing you, you don’t see too much merit in such a policy. For example, during a high-tension basketball match, a woman in my class said something to the effect of “saale teri maa kii” in full public hearing to one of her worthy opponents! I found no reason to continue with this “policy” of mine.

It was all fine but things kinda came to a head yesterday when I was chatting with Shilpa. Didn’t quite agree with her when she said something to me in jest and swore at her. Jai happened. Somehow managed to put some hazzaar excuses and wriggle myself out of the situation, and get on with the conversation. And then later she points out that every second sentence of mine has a swearword in it.

Considering that I’ll be entering the corporate world soon, and hopefully not on a trading floor, guess it makes a lot of sense for me to not swear. Somehow need to cut down usage. Wonder if I’ll be able to do it. If not anything else, I need to be extra careful while talking to Shilpa next time!

PS: as for the title of this blog, read it fast. If you know Kannada, it would make sense.