Average skill and peak skill

One way to describe how complex a job is is to measure the “average level of skill” and “peak level of skill” required to do the job. The more complex the job is, the larger this difference is. And sometimes, the frequency at which the peak level of skill is required can determine the quality of people you can expect to attract to the job.

Let us start with one extreme – the classic case of someone  turning screws in a Ford factory. The design has been done so perfectly and the assembly line so optimised that the level of skill required by this worker each day is identical. All he/she (much more likely a he) has to do is to show up at the job, stand in the assembly line, and turn the specific screw in every single car (or part thereof) that passes his way.

The delta between the complexity of the average day and the “toughest day” is likely to be very low in this kind of job, given the amount of optimisation already put in place by the engineers at the factory.

Consider a maintenance engineer (let’s say at an oil pipeline) on the other hand. On most days, the complexity required of the job is very close to zero, for there is nothing much to do. The engineer just needs to show up and potter around and make a usual round of checks and all izz well.

On a day when there is an issue however, things are completely different – the engineer now needs to identify the source of the issue, figure out how to fix it and then actually put in the fix. Each of this is an insanely complex process requiring insane skill. This maintenance engineer needs to be prepared for this kind of occasional complexity, and despite the banality of most of his days on the job, maintain the requisite skill to do the job on these peak days.

In fact, if you think of it, a lot of “knowledge” jobs, which are supposed to be quite complex, actually don’t require a very high level of skill on most days. Yet, most of these jobs tend to employ people at a far higher skill level than what is required on most days, and this is because of the level of skill required on “peak days” (however you define “peak”).

The challenge in these cases, though, is to keep these high skilled people excited and motivated enough when the job on most days requires pretty low skill. Some industries, such as oil and gas, resolve this issue by paying well and giving good “benefits” – so even an engineer who might get bored by the lack of work on most days stays on to be able to contribute in times when there is a problem.

The other way to do this is in terms of the frequency of high skill days – if you can somehow engineer your organisation such that the high skilled people have a reasonable frequency of days when high skills are required, then they might find more motivation. For example, you might create an “internal consulting” team of some kind – they are tasked with performing a high skill task across different teams in the org. Each time this particular high skill task is required, the internal consulting team is called for. This way, this team can be kept motivated and (more importantly, perhaps) other teams can be staffed at a lower average skill level (since they can get help on high peak days).

I’m reminded of my first ever real taste of professional life – an internship in an investment bank in London in 2005. That was the classic “high variance in skills” job. Having been tested on fairly extreme maths and logic before I got hired, I found that most of my days were spent just keying in numbers in to an Excel sheet to call a macro someone else had written to price swaps (interest rate derivatives).

And being fairly young and immature, I decided this job is not worth it for me, and did not take up the full time offer they made me. And off I went on a rather futile “tour” to figure out what kind of job has sufficient high skill work to keep me interested. And then left it all to start my own consultancy (where others would ONLY call me when there was work of my specialty; else I could chill).

With the benefit of hindsight (and having worked in a somewhat similar job later in life), though, I had completely missed the “skill gap” (delta between peak and average skill days) in my internship, and thus not appreciated why I had been hired for it. Also, that I spent barely two months in the internship meant I didn’t have sufficient data to know the frequency of “interesting days”.

And this is why – most of your time might be spent in writing some fairly ordinary code, but you will still be required to know how to reverse a red-black tree.

Most of your time might be spent in writing SQL queries or pulling some averages, but on the odd day you might need to know that a chi square test is the best way to test your current hypothesis.

Most of your time might be spent in managing people and making sure the metrics are alright, but on the odd day you might have to redesign the process at the facility that you are in charge of.

In most complex jobs, the average day is NOT similar to the most complex day by any means. And thus the average day is NOT representative of the job. The next time someone I’m interviewing asks me what my “average day looks like”, I’ll maybe point that person to this post!

Cheap motivation

I’m reading this (so far – I’m blogging in the middle of reading) excellent piece by Charles Assisi in Mint On Sunday about motivation for careers. At the point where I’ve stopped reading his piece and started writing, I’m looking at this graph he has put on the source of motivation:

This reminds me of this conversation I had with a few classmates from business school a few months back. One of them is a successful brand manager for a large packaged goods company, and he was telling us that what gives him the thrills in his job is to see his product replace his rival companies’ products on store shelves.

It is a rather logical motivation – to see the share of the brand you manage improving. However, what was interesting was the way he put it (I’ve surely paraphrased here) – that the thrill came out of his brand doing well at the expense of a rival brand, and of watching the rival brand sink.

It got me thinking about what motivates us, and if motivations are as profound as we like to mention in either a statement of purpose or in an interview. When writing a cover letter for a job, for example, it is likely that you chart out your career path so far detailing motivations for each career move, and what motivates you to take up this job you are applying for.

With a few honourable exceptions, it is likely that it is all a lie, and that you have invented these motivations to retrofit your career progression thus far. Sometimes the real motivation could be as simple as money – you took up a certain job because it paid you well, but for whatever reason it isn’t politically correct to put this on a cover letter (it can work the other way also. I once interviewed for a proprietary trading position and the interviewer was surprised that money wasn’t my number one motivation).

For the most part, however, I argue that the real motivation for most things is something rather trivial – so trivial that nobody will trust you it can actually be a motivation. Like you join a hobby class because that allows you to stay out late. Or go for some other activity because it is near the house of someone you have taken a fancy for. Or you participate in an event because it allows you to travel to a particular city. I had once gone for a recruiting event because it was being held in a five star hotel and the agenda included lunch.

A trivial motivation need not always lead to results – the sheer triviality of the motivation means that you are less likely to generate good results from such processes. However, what trivial motivations allow is to expand the range of activities and opportunities you take part in, and the sheer volume of such expansion can take you to places you had never imagined you would get to. In other words, while at some point in time, you do use serious motivations, it is likely that the seed for such activities or pursuits had been set in more trivial settings.

So when you want to do something purely for the cheap thrills it gives you, go ahead – it might help you learn something about yourself that you’d not known before. And might motivate you to an extent well beyond what motivation you can get from profound sources.

Yet another startup idea

This time it’s an i-phone/android app. The motivation for this is the heavy advertising in the last few days for Mapmyindia GPS, on hoardings all over Bangalore. Again, I don’t know if this has been implemented before.

So this will be built on top of Mapmyindia or any other similar GPS. When you hunt for the shortest route between point A and point B, you can give two possible choices – shortest by distance and shortest by time. The former is the default choice that all GPSs currently use. This one is an app to provide the latter.

Now, each city will be mapped out as a network of intersections. And then, for each “edge” on this graph, we use data that we’ve gathered from other users of the app in order to predict the amount of time taken to travel. Of course, the prediction model is not going to be simple, and I’m willing to partner you (via my forthcoming quant consultancy firm) in developing it. It’s going to be a fairly complex model based on time-of-day, recency of data, outlier detection (what if someone stops off for lunch in the middle of an “edge”?) and all such.

So, now you have the city mapped out (for a particular instant) both in terms of distance and in terms of time, and in cases of any traffic jams or such, my system will help you find the quickest route to your destination. Should be useful, right?

Of course, the success of this app (like a lot of other apps, I guess) depends heavily on “network effect”. The more the users of this app, the better the model I’ll have in predicting time between intersections, and save you the headache of mentally trying to optimize the route to your destination each time you set out (like I do).

I’m pretty serious about this. If you think this hasn’t been done before, we can work together to get this up!

The problem with “civil society” people

is that they can’t work with people with whom they have minor differences – which is where politicians easily trump them. Politicians are expert in the art of working out compromises and working with people with whom they have divergent beliefs. Of course, it creates “unholy coalitions” but you have to give it to the enterprise of the politicians (let’s not question their motivation here) to come together as a group and get stuff done.

With civil society types, however, as soon as they discover that there is something disagreeable about the other party, they’ll cry hoarse and refuse to work with them. So for example, if for some reason I come together with these “civil society” worthies for some cause, I’m sure they’ll all ditch me as soon as they come to know that I was a member of the RSS when I was eight years old.

Because of this, it is rare that civil society types come together for a cause, which is what makes people believe that the Anna Hazare-led protests of two weeks back were such a significant success. That this magnificent coalition hasn’t really lasted, and cracks are already coming up in the “civil society” half of the draft committee just goes to illustrate my point.

There can be exceptions to this of course – civil society people drawn from an extremely homogeneous distribution ARE capable of “getting things done”. Think National Advisory Council!

Joint Blogging

So the more perceptive of you would have noticed a major change in this blog overthe last couple of weeks. It has now become a multi-author blog with my wife Pinky joining me here.

The chief motivation for this is feedback I received over the last one year that my blog had become boring and one-dimensional. Considering that I’ve been going through some sort of a mental block over the last few months, and am unable to produce posts with the same quality and frequencyas i used to earlier, I decided that the best way to spice up this blog was to bring in a co-blogger.

Around the same time, I got married to Pinky, who is herself a blogger,  so it  was natural to bring her in. And in the last couple of weeks, since I added her as an author, she has responded spectacularly, producing posts (albeit of a different flavour compared to what I produce, of course) with significnatly better regularity and quality compared to me.

So I just want to make it clear that the decision to make this blog a joint one is a conscious and well-thought out one, and not one that has been made due to marital compulsions or anything. Yes, we have markedly different writing styles, so you need not even look up or down to check the author’s name at the bottom of the post or the top of the RSS feed.

This decision to make this blog a multi-author blog is irreversible (yeah, I won’t rule out future expansion, if we are to get suitable co-bloggers; but that won’t happen for a while). So those of you who are trying to debate about the quality changes in the blog because of this change (in the comments section) are just wasting your time. And if you think that the quality is dropping for whatever reason, there is the “unsubscribe” button that your RSS feed aggregator offers you.

I’m working on producing author-specific RSS feeds, so that might allow people to selectively subscribe to posts. Essentially we are looking for a way by which our posts will appear on our respective facebook pages, rather than on everything appearing in mine. If anyone knows how to do that for a wordpress.org blog, plis to be letting us know.

Crowding out with public transport

This is an idea that’s been in my head for a while. About whether it is possible to nudge people who normally travel in cars to use public transport by simply flooding the roads with buses. The motivation for this comes from the hassles associated with marking and enforcing bus lanes, a form of public transport that is generally considered superior to subway trains in terms of cost of implementation and effectiveness.

So the idea is that as the number of buses on the road increases, the average speed of cars comes down. And after a point, the number of buses on the road means there’s enough supply that one can travel comfortably in them. And there will come a point when people will give up their cars in favour of buses since they can now spend the time more usefully rather than waste it by concentrating on the road.

Of course, this point is still far away for a city like Bangalore, though the BMTC has been making efforts, with initiatives such as the Bus Day. Still, now I’ve begun to have my doubts about it. About whether just increasing bus connectivity and frequency and quality will be enough to take cars off the road. I’ve begun to think if the comfort of not having to drive but travel at the same speed is enough to compensate for the cost of walking to and from bus stops and waiting for buses. The other cost of traveling by bus is that once you get into a bus you travel by a fixed route rather than adapting to daily traffic flows.

The important thing here is the distribution of waiting time for catching a bus. If a passenger is convinced that he is very likely to get a bus within a certain span of time with a very high probability (using vague words to avoid putting random numbers) he is likely to wait for a bus. However, if there are no such bounds, then the passenger might choose to travel by an alternate means of transport.

Still it needs to be seen. From what I know, all cities that currently boast of great public transport actually built a lot of the basic public transport infrastructure before the boom of cars in the place. I can’t recall off the top of my head any city that has actually nudged passengers from personal cars to public transport after cars had become default mode of transport (if you know of such cases, please let me know). In that sense, this nudging towards public transport is still a hard problem to solve. Nevertheless, I still think it might still be a good idea to try crowd out private transport by public transport.