More on studs and fighters

I was watching Wimbledon last night when I realized there aren’t too many pure serve-and-volley types around. Even the 5-time champion Federer plays mostly from the baseline. I don’t recall any pure serve-and-volley types after Sampras and Ivanisevic. Anyways, while watching Roddick play Schwank, I came up with the following hypothesis:

When a new field opens up, in the beginning, it is mostly dominated by studs. Soon, people start figuring out. Soon the code gets cracked, and a manual gets published. And the field becomes less and less stud as time goes on. And it gets dominated by fighters. The stud has no option but to do something and take things to a new level, or a new field, where the studness can be applied.

Let me know if this is true. Background reading about studs and fighters.

Hierarchy of wedding invites

1. Email sent to a mailing list, with scanned invitation attached
2. Email sent to a number of individual email ids, all on BCC. Addressed to “Dear All” or some such thing. Scanned invitation attached
3. Email sent to you only. Starts off with a “Dear Karthik, trust you are doing great.” blah blah. Scanned invitation attached
4. Email sent to you only. Starts off with a “Dear Karthik, trust you are doing great.” blah blah. Scanned invitation attached. Then the person checks on IM if you’ve received it and asks you to come.
5. Email sent to you only. Starts off with a “Dear Karthik, trust you are doing great.” blah blah. Scanned invitation attached. This is followed by a phone call.
6. Email or phone asking for your address. Physical card arrives by snail mail. You get a follow-up call.
7. You meet in some random place (such as a train or at work) and the person physically hands you the card.
8. The person comes to your home and hands over the card to you

Tell me if i’ve missed something. There’s a reason I’ve used integers for the numbering. There is an infinite number of real numbers between each pair of integers in order to fit in more levels.

The met department and randomness

Ok. Nothing unusual about the title of this post. There is intuitively a lot of randomness where the met department is concerned. This post is about an editorial in the Business Standard.

Now, the Indian Met department used a new process for forecasting the monsoons last year. Now, this process yielded good results in the north-east and north-west in terms of forecast accuracy. In the center and south, however, it was a disaster. The process had predicted a small shortfall in rain in these two regions, and it turned out the rains here were more than a quarter more than normal!

So what does the met do now? They decide to discard the process for the center and south. And will continue to use it for the north-west and north-east. Even if you know a little bit about randomness and testing, and I assume that the people at the met department should definitely be well-versed in this, you will know that they have done is ridiculous. How can you form an opinion about something by looking at just one data point? Wouldn’t there have been a good chance that this an anomalous result? Now, what will the met do if the method fails for the north-east and north-west also? Will they completely abandon this new method?

I find the system that the met department is using no more intelligent than the one that I use to classify my shirts as “lucky” or “unlucky” (and trust me that isn’t very intelligent; I just use 1/2 data points and quickly derive an opinion).

God help us, if the met department is like this. The sooner weather derivatives (rainfall, temperature, etc.) get launched (or have they already been launched? I know they are now legal in india) the better for us. At least in that case we will get the wisdom of crowds to forecast the monsoon.

Being a jack of many trades

Earlier today, I had written that bosses are unlikely to trust employees who they think have the option of easily quitting their jobs. I had made the point back then that you shouldn’t take a job for which you are over-qualified.

Thinking about it, it strikes me that if you are versatile, you face a similar kind of problem. Suppose you have the necessary skill sets to do say four different kinds of jobs, and are doing one, irrespective of where you go, your boss will think there is a good chance you might take flight to one of the other jobs. Now, if the potential bosses think like this during the interview itself, there is a good chance that none of them is willing to hire you!

From the point of view of long-term stability, what most bosses are looking for is for focussed and committed employees. And unless your “skills vector” points broadly in the same direction of the required skills for the job, the cross product will be big enough to cause concerns over stability in the mind of the interviewer.

One option, of course, is to focus on one particular direction and forget your other skills, so that the component of your skills vector in this particular direction will dwarf the components in other directions, thus reducing the cross product when compared to the job profile skills vector. But what do you do if, at a particular point of time in your career, you are a jack-of-several-trades – like I am at this point of time? You need to be able to do something now before you are able to improve in a component.

You might appreciate the following analogy if you understand contract bridge. What do you do with a hand where in each of the four suits, both you and your partner are reasonably strong, while there is no single strong suit? You need to choose a trump, and may end up choosing the longest of suits. But due to this choice, you may not be able to use your high cards in the other suits to the fullest extent.

Bridge offers a way out for this, by allowing you to bid for a no trump contract. The challenge here is to find the equivalent of a no trump contract in the job market.

Speaking to Baada about this, we somehow thought this too might fit in with the seminal studs and fighters framework. It is likely (not guaranteed, but likely) that a stud boss may just look at the magnitude of the skills vector and the unique direction it points to and say “OK if i train this guy in my direction, i’m sure he’ll grow quickly along that and will be useful to me”. My little experience says that fighters are more likely to look for “proven track record in chosen field” and “focus” and would thus not be too appreciative of a big cross product.

simple writing, high thinking…

In an op-ed in yesterday’s Business Standard, Deepak Lal writes

Hume believed that all ideas are based either on logic or sense experience, and that our inductive inferences based on constant conjunction of particular temporal sequences do not give us secure grounds from observing instances to inferring a general rule.

Totally haemoglobin-in-the-atmosphere level stuff. I mean, it may be ok (or even necessary) to use such complicated and unreadable language in an academic journal. But in an op-ed of a newspaper? Even if it is a business newspaper whose readers are more informed in general?

I think there is a conspiracy by academics to prevent “normal people” from understanding concepts that are simple and intuitive.

This day that year

Given my superior long term memory (for which i’ve paid a huge price in terms of an extremely bad short-term memory), I keep running this “this day that year” iteration in my head. On a certain day, I try and figure out what I did on the same day a few years back. Some memories stick, others don’t. For some “significant” dates (such as my birthday) lots of events stick. For others, nothing would’ve happened. However, I have a feeling that I accurately remember most “significant events”.

Continue reading “This day that year”

Using the loopholes

I have a feeling that Bengal have thrown their match against Andhra. This ensures their relegation, and given the new format of next year’s ranji trophy, gives them the best chance of making the quarters.

They have way too much quality in their bowling (RR Bose, SS Paul, Dinda, etc.) and if, by way of imports or some softening of the BCCI’s stand on ICL or by improvement in Tiwary’s form, they can shore up their batting they are sure to top their plate group and thus make it to the quarters.

If the BCCI continues with the next year’s format, then I’m sure that once quality teams figure out they can’t make it to the quarters, they’ll get relegated so as to give themselves a better chance of winning!
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