Karnataka – effect of swings from 2008 election

You can use the slider below to see how changes in vote share of major parties affects the seat distribution. The “base” here is the vote share in the 2008 Assembly Elections. The numbers on the sliders are in percentages.

This new version uses the vote shares in various districts during the recent Urban Local Body elections to account for the BJP split. As you can see, there is a slider that allows you to indicate how much of the split of the BJP’s votes as per the recent ULB elections will reflect in the forthcoming assembly elections. The reason for this slider is due to feedback that the split of BJP votes in the local body elections may not translate directly to the assembly elections.

There is also a slider called ‘performance impact’. This is based on data from the Daksh survey where samples of voters were asked to evaluate their sitting MLA. The way to use this is that when the slider is at 0, there is no impact of the MLA’s performance on vote share in the forthcoming elections. When it is at 5, an MLA who voters are “extremely happy” with will get 5% additional votes, and an MLA who voters are extremely unhappy with gets 5% less votes than what he did last time.

2 thoughts on “Karnataka – effect of swings from 2008 election”

  1. Good one…without the tool, here is my prediction

    INC – 112 to 130
    BJP – 55 to 78
    JDS – 28 to 40
    KJP – 2 to 7
    BSR – 0 to 2
    IND – 0 to 5

    If you factor in dissidence in about 10-15 seats, then BJP/JDS stand to gain by 8-10 seats..

    Possible scenarios of a government formation then:

    Scenario 1: INC – Siddaramaiah as CM with wafer thin majority(around 120 seats) is a given at the moment if infighting is controlled.

    Scenario 2: BJP – JDS coalition government(around 115 seats) on 30-30 months power sharing model with Jagadish Shettar & Kumaraswamy as CM’s.

    Scenario 3: INC – JDS coalition government (around 135-140 seats) with MH Ambarish/Oscar Fernandes as CM & HD Revanna as DCM or H.K.Patil as CM & Anita Kumaraswamy as DCM

    Scenario 4: INC – KJP coalition government (around 115-120 seats) with Siddaramaiah as CM & Shobha Karandlaje as Home Minister

    1. Aim of JDS will be to restrict Congress to <= 100. Aim of BJP will be to get enough seats such that tehy can form coalition with JDS. Order of parties is well known. Congress 100-120; BJP 50-70; JDS 30-40 (throwing numbers from thin air). So they are all working at the margin, I think. It is in the interest of both JDS and BJP btw that BJP leaders don't defect to KJP. That will only end up helping Congress

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