About the wrong prediction…

The second-last prediction I made (about Punjab getting relegated), in hindsight, looks fundamentally flawed. After Orissa made 300 in their first innings, I assumed that Punjab wouldn’t be able to face Mohanty in Mohali. Instead it was VRV who cracked in Orissa’s second innings, taking four wickets with five balls as they folded up for 76, with the only decent resistance coming from SS Das.

If you look at day cricket at Mohali, it has always been supportive of the hit the deck types, rather than the swingers. If you recall the first ever test there,? Walsh broke Prabhakar’s nose, and along with Kenny Benjamin, finished off the Indians for a little over a 100. Munaf, on his debut here in 2006, had destroyed England, with help from Anil Kumble (and back then, Munaf was fast). If you discount bowling under lights (when dew makes the ball play tricks, and thus assists the swingers), Mohali doesn’t have much swing. It’s more about the hard deck, and the bounce, and ideally suited for the hit the deck types.

It’s the kind of pitch which is best exploited by a tall and fast bowler with a high arm action who can pitch it at a back of a length, and in that department VRV is one of the best we have in India. Face it, but that’s the truth. Ishant has the height and bounce but lacks pace, and I don’t really know about Pankaj Singh. Another exponent of this kind of bowling is Agarkar, who, despite his lack of height, gets excellent bounce when in form. And there is Munaf. The left armers are all swingers, as is Sreesanth.

Anyways, the point is that Mohali would always be more conducive to someone like VRV rather than a swinger like Mohanty. Hence the bet was flawed.

Prediction

Two days to go for counting and declaration of results. I hereby stick my neck out and make my prediction. Modi will win. And I don’t think ideology has much to do with it.

After Krishna and Chandrababu lost in 2004, and PVN got mauled in 1996, it has fashionable to say that development won’t win elections. I think it has more to do with impact of development. The reforms ushered in by PVN didn’t touch the common man immediately. The change in economic ideology had no impact on them. He wasn’t “seen” by the common man (and the common man doesn’t watch budget speeches on TV) to be doing much good. And got trounced.

Krishna and Naidu fared worse. They actually made a meaningful impact, but went out. They were seen as do-gooders. Unfortunately, they did significantly more good for a certain section of society as against other the rest of society. And unfortunately for them, the section that? got left out was significantly larger. And they bit the dust.

From what people tell me, and what I read in the paper, Modi seems to have done better. Two things catch my eye – the rural electrification program and some scheme for education for girls. The latter is supposed to have increased school enrolment among girls to a whopping 97% (Source: Today’s business standard. Can’t find the link). The former is supposed to have electrified an even larger proportion of villages. Barring a couple of hundred villages, the rest are supposed to receive 24 x 7 3 phase power supply.

If the above is true, there is no way Modi can lose. Two things he has done that both PVN and the southern CMs missed out. Firstly, the reforms have made an impact during his tenure. It’s there for people to see before they vote again. Secondly, and more importantly, they have been broad-based. In his biggest achievements, I don’t see that he has favored any group over another, so the reforms haven’t alienated anyone, as they did to rural Karnataka when Krishna was CM.

While we are at it, another point to mention here is Chidambaram’s statement regarding the massive increase in Gujarat’s debt burden during Modi’s tenure. Coming from the national Finance Minister, this statement ought to be taken seriously. If it is indeed right, it’s hard to see why the Congress didn’t make a bigger issue of it. If the figures are wrong, the BJP can disrupt the budget session of parliament demanding the FM’s resignation.

Footnote: The last time I made a prediction on my blog, I went wrong. I had predicted that Punjab would get relegated in the Ranji Trophy. And riding on the back of a VRV hat-trick, they made a superb second innings comeback to beat Orissa and thus avoid relegation. Hopefully my forecasts are better this time.

Playing out the overs

some colleague in my office asked “so how is the new project? liking it?”

I replied, “Do you follow cricket? Test cricket? When a batsman comes in with five overs to go in the day, he doesn’t aim to score runs. All he looks for is to play out the overs without any damage so that he can return the next morning and score. I started this project on the 10th of December”

Rat Kill

I added yet another to my tally yesterday. I seem to have become an expert at this. Armed with a broom and a plastic stick, I go about my job slowly. Tapping the stick around on the floor, sometimes poking it into corners, I? try to force out the prey. And when it appears, the broomstick is a good weapon. It spreads out near the front so as to increase the surface of impact. It’s sharp, and is likely to cause more pain. Just a couple of hits with it usually suffice, it seems.

Continue reading “Rat Kill”

Tracking Inflation

Inflation is less likely to be noticed in items which you buy regularly. For example, I have seen auto fares in Bangalore going up from Rs. 2.30 per km when I first started traveling alone by auto, to Rs. 6 now (this is the official meter fare). However, since I’ve always been a fairly regular traveler by Bangalore’s autos (even when I was in Madras, I used to come to Bangalore fairly regularly, and travel by auto), I’ve seen the gradual increase in the price. And am hence not shocked by the high prices, and think it (the meter fare) is fair.

Or for another example, actually I can’t think about it. I don’t really remember the prices of too many things. And those that I do haven’t changed. For example, competition from SunFeast has ensured that a packet of Britannia Good Day still costs Rs. 12 – the same as about ten years ago. I buy so many things, but simply don’t track prices. As long as it’s not significantly different from what it was the last time I bought it I won’t crib.

However, it doesn’t work this way for goods that you don’t buy regularly. Rather, if you don’t buy it long enough that inflation gets compounded enough times, then you are bound to get shocked. For example, during my six years of hostel life, I didn’t really go buy bread from our regular baker (for the record, this is the Iyengar Bakery at the Jayanagar 4th Block circle. However, for the last year or so we’ve been buying bread from the Iyengar Bakery between Cool Joint and Pavithra. The new guy makes good brown bread, which the 4th block circle guy doesn’t make). And was shocked that a “pound” now cost 13 bucks. The last time I’d been there it was 7. There was a six year gap and prices in general had gone up enough for the baker to have slowly almost doubled his price. If i’d been visiting him regularly I wouldn’t have noticed.

Have you ever wondered why during your childhood your parents used to crib that everything had become expensive? If you recall, most of their cribbing would’ve been directed at goods which are usually consumed by kids. Fact is that the prices of these things would’ve increased at approximately normal rate of inflation itself (adjusting for lifestyle changes, etc.). Except that your parents would’ve last bought these things some thirty years back. A normal inflation rate compounded thirty times over indeed makes things look expensive.

The reason I thought about this was that I was checking out the Tinkle website only to find that it now costs Rs. 40 per copy. Chandamama now costs Rs. 15. I was shocked and decided that if I were a kid now, I wouldn’t be buying them. However, Tinkle used to be Rs. 10 some 15 years ago, and Chandamama was then Rs. 6 or something. The CAGR of the price isn’t that high! It’s only that you haven’t checked it for so long!

So the next time your parents crib that what you’re buying is way too expensive, ask them when was the last time they bought that. And then pull out a calculator or an Excel and calculate the CAGR (compounded annual growth rate). ??

Random Ranji Roundup

A few months back Pushy, Baada and i had decided that we’ll write a weekly review of the domestic cricket season. Unfortunately, NED
struck and the project never took off. Baada even stopped general blogging. Anyways, I thought I’d just do a random roundup, if not for anything else, to just try and keep up some bit of a broken promise. If i start crafting an essay now, the thoughts in my head might escape me. So I’ll stick to bullet points.

  • Karnataka seems to have been badly let down by its batsmen. The only game so far where they’ve even secured a first innings lead was against Himachal Pradesh, where Dravid led them with a double hundred (Karnataka went on to win the game by an innings). One look at the season’s run getters chart shows where Karnataka has been faltering – the highest run getter is Dravid, who has played only two games so far.
  • The main reason for Karnataka doing so well last season was Robin Uthappa, who was the highest run getter in the season. He has badly failed this time, scoring a solitary fifty, and the rest of the batting hasn’t shown much teeth. The captain Yere Goud must be held singularly responsible for the loss to Saurashtra. Five to get from five balls with a wicket in hand, and he takes a single to give strike to the number eleven – who gets promptly bounced out.
  • Interestingly, Karnataka’s bowlers seem to be doing quite well if one looks at the charts, with three of them in the top 10 among wicket takers. Apart from the ongoing match, they seem to have done quite well, only to have been let down by their batsmen.
  • When the groups were formed, it was expected that Group A would be a quadrangular contest between Bombay, Delhi, TN and Karnataka. Delhi have performed to potential, topping the group. However, tied for second place with Bombay are the surprise packages of this competition – Saurashtra and Maharashtra. Even Rajasthan and HP, who bring up the rear in the group, have been no pushovers.
  • Delhi has been helped by some extremely strong batting performances, with everyone save Sehwag contributing and making big hundreds. Aakash Chopra made a strong claim for a recall to the Indian team. However, in the name of aggression Sehwag has been preferred. Delhi have also been well served by their bowlers with Pradeep Sangwan being outstanding. They haven’t really missed the injured Ashish Nehra and Ishant, who is in the national team.
  • Saurashtra received a boost with their close win over Karnataka and they seem to be in a good position to qualify for the semis. It is likely to be a kind of knockout between them and Bombay in the final round. Cheteshwar Pujara tops the run scoring chart, while their fast bowling pair of Jobanputra and Maniar have done extremely well. Jobanputra also chipped in with a crucial lower order fifty against Karnataka.
  • However, the surprise package of the group has been Maharashtra, who till recently seemed to be in an excellent position to qualify. However, given that they aren’t doing too well in the ongoing game, they may not make it. Read this piece by Siddharth Monga for more about the team. I don’t think I can add anything to that.
  • Group B has been much more closely contested, with only two points separating the last six teams, and Baroda qualifying easily. Newly promoted Orissa were thought to be the whipping boys of this group. However, a couple of strong performances – led by the indefatigable Debashis Mohanty – have put them in a good position to even challenge for the title. Bengal, with their excellent pace attack, prepared a green top at Siliguri, only for the idea to backfire with Debashis Mohanty and B Mohanty (a debutant) belting Bengal. This match reminded me of the Hyderabad-Bengal game last season, where Hyderabad prepared a green top at home, and it had backfired badly with Bose coming up with a superb performance.
  • Speaking of Bengal, they were expected to do well this season given the return from injury of SS Paul to partner Bose with the new ball. However, due to a large number of defections to the ICL, their batting has become over-reliant on Manoj Tiwary, and has sunk and swam with his performances. Their captain LR Shukla is now playing almost as a specialist batsman and bowls only occasionally. If you recall, he was in the shortlist for the 1999 World Cup as a fast bowling all-rounder! Thankfully, when it came to final selection, the selectors had looked beyond the shortlist and picked Mohanty. Anyways, Bengal has collapsed once again to UP, with a bowling pitch at the Eden Gardens backfiring badly.
  • The thing with group B is that a large number of teams have been badly hit by the ICL. Bengal lost half its batsmen and its keeper. Hyderabad lost all but two players from last season (hat tip: Baada). Arjun Yadav, son of ex-India off-spinner Shivlal Yadav, has hit back strongly at critics who said that he was made captain because of “quota”. He seems to be Hyderabad’s most consistent run getter this season. They seemed to be prime candidates for relegation from their group until their come from behind win over Andhra. Given the volatility of the group, one won’t be surprised if they qualify for the semis.
  • My bet for relegation from this group is Punjab. They too have been badly hit by the ICL, and playing their last game now (this group has an odd number of teams, so Punjab gets a bye in the last round), yet to win a game and are joint last in the group. My prediction is that Mohanty at Mohali will be too much for Punjab to handle, and they are unlikely to beat Orissa.
  • UP have had a mixed season, and are still joint last in the group. However, I expect them to beat Bengal in this round and stay afloat. Raina has been batting well, but Kaif hasn’t. Chawla too has been okay-ish and I think they’ve missed RP. They should stay on I think.
  • Any new India hopefuls? Raina might have been knocking back on the door, but unfortunately for him, the batting lineup in both forms seems quite saturated, and he might have to wait a while more. Pujara will continue making it to shortlists but I don’t expect him to be capped soon. Basically if Yuvraj is finding it tough to get a spot in the test squad, none of these chaps can, unless he’s a specialist opener. And looking down the list of run getters, the top openers are the discarded Chopra and Ravi Teja of Hyderabad and LNP Reddy of Andhra. Don’t see any of them making it. As mentioned earlier, Uthappa has failed badly this season, else he might have stood a chance in the longer variety.
  • Amongst bowlers, Pankaj Singh has already made it to the squad. And despite their splendid performances I don’t see the likes of Ashok Thakur (HP) or Sandeep Jobanputra making it – if not for anything else, they are left armers and we have a surfeit of them in the national team right now. The same logic might keep out Pradeep Sangwan, who looks like a decent prospect. He might make it sometime in the future.
  • And of course, the best part of the season has been the two close finishes in the previous round. Both games went right down to the wire, with all three results having a significantly non-zero probability when the last ball was bowled. I read on cricinfo that in the history of Ranji trophy there have been less than five games with a victory margin of less than five runs. And now you have a 2-run margin and a 3-run margin. What joy!
  • And a word also has to be written about the changed points system. Now, teams earn a point if they draw a game after conceding a first innings lead. This has significantly contributed to making the game more interesting.

Phew, never imagined I’d write so much. I know that I should’ve been doing this more regularly.

Matrimonial sites and other stories

I’ve spent the last half hour creating a profile for my cousin on various matrimonial websites. A couple of pertinent observations:

1. There is a column which asks you for marital status. And then one which asks for number of kids. As soon as you check “never married” in the former column, the latter column gets blocked. Basically assumes that you can’t use these websites if you’ve had a kid out of wedlock. And this is common to both Shaadi and BharatMatrimony

2. My uncle was dictating as I typed. There was this box which said “tell me about yourself”. And my uncle asked me to fill “I’m the only daughter of a wealthy father”. I wonder what kind of guys will now try to marry my cousin. I wanted to open that craig’slist ad by that female who wanted an ibanker chap. Then I realized my uncle and cousin might not have the patience to read such a long thing so I just continued to type… Of course later when my mom came home, she blasted me for blindly filling it in.

3. I recently came to know of this concept of borrowing homes for a short time for bride seeing ceremonies. Apparently if you haven’t bothered to maintain your house well, and it isn’t exactly presentable, you don’t need to despair. Relatives are obliged to lend their houses to you for the purpose.

4. My uncle instructed me to put in his email ID and not my cousin’s. “If you put her id, she’ll start corresponding without my notice. Can’t happen”, he declared. And she watched quietly as I filled things in. ??

Floyd Stuff

Listening to Barrett on the stereo or using headphones is literally a hair raising experience! No wonder his music was classified as psychedelic rock!

The fundamental sound did change a bit after the Barrett era, and they made some real soothing stuff such as “Echoes” and the entire DSOTM album. However, from time to time, the original psychedelic sound did surface – notably in Animals.

I hereby recommend to all of you to listen to Floyd, especially the Barrett stuff using a good pair of headphones.

Where do you find the balls?

With the white ball frequently going out of shape or getting discoloured, the ICC has come up with a new rule – the ball needs to be mandatorily changed after 34 overs, with the new ball being approximately 34 overs old and in good shape and white. Assuming that you don’t rotate the balls (that’ll totally defeat the purpose), the question arises as to where people will find the new balls.

How do you get balls that are 34 overs old and yet in good shape and white? is there a special category of balls being manufactured for this? And the condition of the old ball after 34 overs is highly dependent on the pitch, the batsmen, the bowlers, the outfield etc. In this case, is a randomly picked ball of any use? Will it be fair to both teams?

Instead, we should go back to what used to happen at the World Series Cup. Use two white balls, one from each end. Each ball will be used for only 25 overs, ensuring that it stays in shape and white. Of course, we could have situations where teams prepare one ball for reverse swing while letting the other wear naturally. And the batsman will have to keep in mind whether it’s an odd or even over! It’s ok, it’ll only add to the fun.

There isn’t any randomness and it’s the same for both teams. And the ICC is rich enough to afford for one extra new white ball for every match.

No clue why they didn’t pick this option.