When will my courier reach?

Earlier today, I had to urgently send a package to Mumbai. I was recommended that I use Bleudart since they guarantee next day delivery, and off I went to the Bluedart collection centre near my house. There, I learnt that there were 3 options.

For two hundred and eighty rupees (what I ultimately picked) I was guaranteed that the package would be delivered tomorrow. However, there were two premium offerings – promising 1030 am delivery, and 12 noon delivery. Given my payoffs I settled for the “normal” next day package. Now, I wonder when my package will reach.

What are the odds that the package would reach before noon? I would say the odds are very slim, for if my “normal” package were to reach before noon, there would be no reason for me in the future for me to pick the 1030 delivery or 12 delivery package. Even if the package would have reached close to the destination tomorrow morning (I expect that it’ll be sent on a late evening flight today or early morning flight tomorrow), the delivery person would be instructed to wait till after noon before delivering, I think.

What do you think? If you think it’ll reach before noon, you can bet on it. Leave a comment and we can discuss odds. I’ll give you the airwaybill number so we know when exactly it got delivered.


I win the non-existent bet.

Pickup Date 12 October 2011
From Bangalore
To Mumbai
Date of Delivery 13 October 2011
Time of Delivery 12:15

5 thoughts on “When will my courier reach?”

  1. Who are the customers/product for the 1030 and 1200 segment? Primarily business owners/business mail. And hence the moneyback guarantee on these two plans.

    Bluedart has priced these at a premium because – One, it believes it can skim more revenue/mail than the usual mail sent by junta and two, this would also include a slight premium for the insurance (money back and all) they provide for these two services.

    Getting to a more operational level, I am pretty sure there are specific mail clearing timings per store that all mail, irrespective of 1030, 1200 or normal that go into a mailvan. Sorting might take its own sweet time, but I guess transporting the mail would be in the same flight (or at max, consecutive flights).

    The story above indicates that the mail will reach before 1200 at max with odds of 90% and 10% before 2pm. (You also have to account for the mail delivery guy efficiencies at the destination – he will not make round trips around the same/similar location just so that you receive mail a little later in the afternoon to account for the pricing).


    1. Agree with Kiran. I don’t think they’ll take the “trouble” of ensuring your mail is delivered late.

      I believe the 10:30/12:00 noon delivery charges a premium not because it’s earlier in the day but because it’s specific about the time of the day.

  2. You posted on a Wednesday and in the middle of the month. Most business posts are bills, posted in beginning or month end. So there might not be that high a volume for premium, in that case they would want to bundle as much volume as possible into the first flight (which due to assurance, they always run, even for 1 letter) with the hope that there is no last flight out to be deployed.

    But then they will be deploying lesser delivery couriers being Wednesday, middle of the month. So delivery could still be late. I bet on before 12 noon.

  3. If they want to nudge customers to move to the premium slots, they should give the folks choosing the lowest premium ones a few butterflies in their stomach before delivering the package.

    If that’s their strategy – I would pick the delivery time to be between 4 30 to 6 pm

  4. It’s really a nice and useful piece of info. I am happy that you simply shared this helpful info with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thank you for sharing.

Put Comment