Category: general

Of late, Greg Mankiw has been trying hard to show that the US life expectancy is not as high as it should be because of a large number of “unnatural” deaths such as homicides, accidents, etc. Through this he tries to make a point that the healthcare system in the US is just fine, and it doesn’t need to be nationalized, as has been done in Canada and the UK. In this regard, today he publishes a table with “normalized” expectancies, where the effect of unnatural deaths is taken out.

I’m no expert in this but I have a hunch that the quality of life and healthcare in your childhood, growth, lifestyle, etc. have a much higher impact on expectancy than the kind of healthcare available in the latter stages of your life. So assume that by now (i’m 24) my life expectancy is more or less decided, but for unnatural circumstances (i’m assuming here that my lifestyle won’t depend on where i live). So won’t I want to live where my chances of dying due to unnatural circumstances are minimal?

I’m trying to use Mankiw’s data and tryign to figure out what is the probability of an unnatural death in each country. For that, we will need one other data point – that is the average age of unnatural death. Anyways, for now, if I assume that the average age of unnatural death is 40, then in the US, you have a 4.3% chance of dying unnaturally, compared to less than 2% in Germany and 0.3% in the UK. If the average age of unnatural death is 30, then you have a 3.4% chance of getting killed in the US, as compared to 1.5% in Germany and yet another abysmally low number in the UK.

So where do you want to live?

Anyways I have a few questions regarding this
1. What is the average age of death due to unnatural causes? What would be a good estimation of it?
2. Irrespective of this number, it is clear that the proportion of unnatural deaths in the US is much higher than in Europe. Any reasons for this?
3. For? a few countries (Italy, Japan, Canada, etc.) the standardized number is actually less than the observed number. Why could this be so?

A few months back, Steven Levitt had blogged about an idea for terrorism, and people blasted him for it, saying that he is abetting terrorism. Anyways, here is another.

The motivation for this comes from Diwali celebrations yesterday at my cousin’s place. I was lighting a “rocket”, and had placed it inside a bottle. And instead of going straight up, as it is supposed to, it quickly hit the ground and started going along the ground. I got worried for a moment when it went along the ground in the direction of one small girl who was watching (my cousin’s neighbor). And in a moment, I got more worried as the rocket suddenly changed track and headed straight for me!

Thankfully I timed my jump properly and my foot was saved! That whole packet was like that, with a high degree of randomness. The next one went straight for my cousin’s house, and narrowly missed a first floor window. Another went under a car parked nearby, and yet another hit a neighbor’s house.

And I’m confident that the initial positioning of these rockets was ok in all cases, that i’d taken care to ensure that it was placed so that it would go straight up. Just that for some reason the degree of randomness was way too much, causing much tension.

Now, what if terrorists started making fireworks? What if they started slipping in doctored fireworks in the midst of many boxes of good fireworks? It’s like this. Given that testing of fireworks is destructive, only around say 3/4 boxes in a thousand are actually tested for quality. So what I, as a terrorist, would do, is to doctor the fireworks at an undetectable rate. Remember that even if one box in a hundred thousand kills, it could create panic. And I’m sure at this rate of doctoring, randomized destructive tests won’t be able to detect it.

So I would make faulty rockets. “real” bombs. And slip them in in one in a ten thousand boxes or soemthing. And these would LOOK the same as real fireworks. Would be enough to create enough mishaps around the country on a Diwali, and create enough fear in people (which is what Levitt says is the objective of terrorism).

I just hope the terrorists aren’t doign this yet. And do you have any ideas as to how to combat this kind of terrorism? apart from not bursting crackers of course??

Last week, out of sheer enthu, I picked up that xerox copy of Paul Wilmott on Quantitative Finance which was lying torn and dusty in a remote corner of my bedroom, cleaned it and started reading it. I glossed over some of the derivations, ignored the quantitative part of this quantitative book, and found it to be an excellent read. The guy has explained things really well and the book has this nice flowing style, that is so often absent in text books. Some insights

• I still throw a fit when I see the integral sign, unless of course a polynomial is being integrated. And go numb when I see a differential equation. I wonder how I’d handled them seven years ago
• I’m still pretty good at probability and basic statistics
• I’ve managed to “learn back” all that I’d learnt during my internship at J P Morgan, Yes, I remember everything. While I was reading the book, I felt like a guy who’s suffering from amnesia and who is slowly remembering incidents of the past
• I’m still pretty good at understanding derivatives. I may be thoroughly incapable at the complicated models that are used to price them, but I’m pretty good at the fundamentals, and the idea behind most of these things
• I still get a mighty kick out of reading stuff about complicated financial products or trades. For example, this op-ed by Niranjan Rajadhyaksha left me high for almost the whole of last week
• I suck at continuous math, and don’t want to ever encounter it
• The sub prime crisis has helped me immensely in understanding how banks work
• I’m a “high-level” guy. I don’t have an eye for detail. But I can easily see the big picture
• I’m sleepy now so most of the things I planned to put here stand forgotten

Once again I lag harithekid. Once again, he’s beaten me to blogging about an event we went to together. Of course, in this case, I don’t blame him, as his team made a stunning comeback to finish on the podium. And I won’t stop cribbing that the cheap Landmark guys didn’t give anything to teams placed 4th to 8th while the team placed 9th as well as sundry members of the audience (most of whom didn’t even answer a question) went home with boxes of goodies.

That cute chick didn’t appear. However, the similarities between this quiz and the landmark quiz of two years back were numerous. Both times, it was

one levers guy (then it was dushyanth, this time it was kodhi) and I. Both times, there was A cute chick I saw just before the quiz. Both times, we sat somewhere in the middle of the hall, somewhere towards the left. Both times we qualified, and sat at Table 7. Both times, the cute chick i’d seen before quiz sat at the same place. Fourth or fifth row from front. Towards the right of the audience. Ideal position for me to put eye contact during the finals. Both times there was this family team (Rohith Kamath (ex-IIMC), his mom and his cousin (who made quite an impression on many a quizzer)) which had qualified and which sat at table 2. I think the similarities end there. I’m not sure.

The prelims had been decent. There were a few downright bad questions. Like that on eggs or on the kimono or any of the other “multiple choice questions”. There were also a few workoutable things, which we managed to work out. And we had just about qualied.

The finals had a few good fundaes. A fwe of them. Good fundaes but not sure if they made good questions for a Category 22 event (this is where the “modified infinite bounce” funda is good – you can afford to put a few uncrackable questions with good fundaes without affecting the quiz). And a lot of muck. The best part of the quiz was Derek pulling harithekid‘s leg. I’ll come to the worst part in a while.

Clearly Derek reads blogs. Or someone on his team does. And he knows that us south indian quizzers dont’ like him. And blog about him. He knows that we think Calcutta quizzing is very “trivia-based” and a test of knowledge, as against south indian quizzing which is a test of logical reasoning. And after a particularly bad landmark in 2005, the Landmark guys told him that he better put better questions or else… And he has been attempting to make a “good quiz”. What he calls an “esoteric” quiz. What he thinks are “good fundaes” – which means lots of connects.

After four rounds, the last two teams are going to be chucked out. Given that it was ’rounds’, this meant that derek required to have had 32 questions for this phase. And it turned out he had only 30. And two questions which had to go to the audience went to the teams. So much for India’s most “popular” quizmaster. So much for the lakhs he charges landmark to do this quiz. Derek, go back!

There were a few sitters in the finals, and we were guilty of missing out on a couple of them. And were duly punished as we were the second team to get chucked out. However, this time there was no space to sit near the chick-of-the-day. We went back and sat with Baada’s team. The quiz went on. The quality didn’t improve. You don’t put questions such as a straight identification of Kasper Schmeichel in the finals of a Category 22 quiz – incidentally the question almost went uncracked. The quiz went on… and we watched.

This time I’m not writing any letter to the chick-of-the-day. i didn’t find her as impressive as the one i’d seen two years back. Or maybe the novelty factor of seeing a chick at a quiz has worn off. Anyways this female looked very similar to one female who goes to the same gym as me. So I have a semblance of a handle. But I’m unlikely to put blade. If only i were to meet? that female somewhere!

Sometime in the middle of the quiz, just before we got chucked out, Derek came up with his masterpiece. It was a music round (think about the balance of the quiz when one fourth of the quiz is just about music!! ) and our man plays two old Hindi songs and asks us to connect. Question moves for a while when Anil takes a long shot with “they are both from the same raaga”. Derek goes delirious. As arbit as that! The kind of question I’d answered on my way to second place in the KQA Lone Kid 1994. Nowadays they don’t ask such questions even in school quizzes.

Anyways, Derek decides this is his best question. That it is his masterpiece. That it is his chance to get back at the bloggers. After everyone has overcome the shock and awe, he proclaims “this one is for the bloggers out there” and proceeds to hold up his middle finger. I hope this action was noticed. I hope this action came to the notice of the Landmark guys, and that this is reason enough to not extend his contract. He is much better off on his home turf of Calcutta, asking questions about the color of a Gulab Jamun.

And Derek, if you are reading this, here is a massive middle finger for you. Rather, I should be saying K2U

On Thursday evening, as we were standing outside the Chowdiah auditorium mulling about missed opportunities at the just-concluded Landmark Quiz, I got a call from Deepa Balakrishnan of CNN-IBN. They were doing a feature on CAT prep, it seems, and so needed my expert comments on that. Thrilled to get footage for something that I had done four years back, back when Wimpy was happy, I quickly agreed. Deepa agreed to come near my office on Friday morning to record my statement. Five minutes later,

?got a similar call.

Deepa didn’t turn up (she had to rush to the BJP office for some work it seems), and in her place landed up one cute reporter called Shruti. I thought it was going to be an interview and she would ask me some questions. Instead it was going to be a monologue about my CAT prep and related stuff. I think I spoke for some two minutes continuously. And that was about it.

At three thirty yesterday, I got a call from my mom telling me that CNN-IBN had scheduled a program called “Bell the CAT” for 530 yesterday evening and that I should come home to watch the self-footage. It turned out to be an utterly useless program. There was one guy from the T.I.M.E. factory who was answering queries by aspirants. Questions ranged from “how much time should we give for the quant section” to “will the paper be easy this time”. The guy did his best to answer the questions (he answered fairly well I thought) but I don’t think he would have added much value to the aspirants. As an aside, I told my mom that none of the people who had called in would ever make it to an IIM.

Somewhere in the middle of the program, leading up to the first break, they got expert comments by alumni. I said something to the effect that you need to chill before CAT and that I spent the week leading up to CAT playing football and that the night before CAT I had watched a movie and all that. I forgot to mention that I had injured my face playing football that week!

talked about going for an ice cream the night before CAT and sleeping early and all that. We were fairly insightful I thought!

The program will be telecast again at 1330 today. Watch it only if you want to see our faces. The program doesn’t add much more value. And, when it was telecast yesterday it was supposed to be a “live” program, but after reading this article by Vir Sanghvi, I doubt if it was actually live.

Anyways it did add some value for me. So what if I appeared on screen for only ten seconds? Given the scarcity of footage nowadays, some footage is better than no footage.

At six am on wednesday, I received an SMS from

“Cheap guy. Canceled middle seat. Some chick between us now. Hehehehe… ” The middle seat in question had been canceled since

had to back out at the last moment. And his seat had now been taken by Haritha, F 25. We were on our way to Madras, to attend a surprise birthday party on account of Kodhi’s 25th birthday.

I was inside the coach when I received the SMS. There had been some problem with the booking engine it seems, and the seat orientation was much different from normal, which means that people who were supposed to sit together were now far apart. We were supposed to have a window and an aisle. We ended up having an aisle seat on one side, and a window on the far side one row back. The window seat on the near side was occupied by a not-so-young lady, with a five year old boy. And a guy, who seemed like he was her husband, had come to see her off. Haritha. F. 25.

Lunch was at Benjarong on TTK road. Strong thai stuff, with the high point being the on-the-house paan level stuff. And I remembered my investment banking days by ordering a “derivative of thai red curry”. It was a good call, I must say. We had a nice leisurely lunch (7 hours to kill remember?) and we had killed some three hours by the time we got out.

Haggling with auto drivers… baskin robbins… fraud book sale at odyssey…. standing and reading a couple of amar chitra kathas there… haggling with auto drivers again…. find a fruit shop at a petrol bunk on nungambakkam high road…. lime mint cooler… five o clock… and sairam calls… there is a cake to be picked up from cakes and bakes on Numgambakkam high road…

I’ve forgotten to mention about my phone. I hadn’t recharged it for some three days. It’s a nokia 6670 with color screen and all that .Has camera and video. And on the train, I’d shown some videos to Hari. So by the time I get off at Madras, the battery has almost died. And by the time Sairam had finished explaining the location of the cake shop, the battery had told total jai. We continued to sip on our LMCs.

An hour to go for the party and we had to charge my phone, collect the cake, change and get to the venue, not necessarily in that order. We set out looking for a coffee shop, where we could find a charger, but couldn’t find any. As an aside, Nungambakkam high road reminds me of Linking road in Bandra. Maybe the general shape. Or the arrangment of shops. But they are way too similar. Spookily similar. Coming back, we are lucky to find a Vodafone shop. It has one of those things where you can just plug in your phone and charge. I run in and plug mine in. Only to be told it wasn’t working!

Hari comes up with a senti story and asks them to lend us a charger. It was so similar to the story told by the couple from Nagpur with a kid who were robbed of all their money and need some to go back. I thought the story was quite unnecessary, but the salesgirl is kind enough to lend us a charger and takes my phone and plugs it in. I don’t know if she knew that I had an airtel connection. A good way to spend another fifteen minutes. Needless to say, this shop too had A/C.

It was half past six when we entered Cakes and Bakes, and there was a light drizzle outside. It took a while to convince the guy there that we were supposed to get that cake (Sairam had ordered it). Finally managed to get through to sairam, and he gave us some “useful details” (2 kg pineapple cake with “happy birthday aswath” on it) after which we were in possession of the cake. We were advised to take an auto to Harrison’s though it was only an eight minute walk away. Having haggled enough for the day, we decided to walk. And it started raining.

Both of us had been thoughtful enough to carry umbrellas, and they were opened in an instant. One hand below the cake, and the other held the umbrella. Trying to balance the cake well enough that it doesn’t fall off. Was reminded of the odd rainy day when I was in IIT. When I would hold an umbrella in my right hand and try balance the cycle using only my left. There was more at stake here. A full cake. For which someone else had given us the responsibility.

I don’t know if you were on Nungambakkam high road that day. If you were, you’d’ve liked to see us. Two tall guys. Bespectacled. One thin, one fat. One with long hair, and the other with sideburns. Carrying black umbrellas. Weaving through the traffic. Avoiding the puddles and potholes. And trying to balance a cake between them. Would’ve been quite a sight. Sadly, there was no camera around. Rather, the only one available was in my almost-dead 6670.

We were the first to reach the hotel. Had a small argument with the reception staff because we wanted them to remove the “happy birthday to aswath venkataraman: Mulberry hall” from the hotel notice board. They argued? that the lack of a board would put too much workload on the already overworked reception staff. We told them about the importance of the surprise. We did it in two phases. First it was changed to “birthday party fourth floor” and finally settled at “unilever party fourth floor”.

We had changed into cleaner stuff before Ravi arrived, and he was closely followed by Kodhi’s relatives. And then there was Beedi and Swami and Sairam and some more relatives and some levers junta. Kodhi’s mom told us about the final strategies as we sipped the welcome drink. Kodhi had been told it was an official party. And was coming straight from work. And we had to surprise him.

There were several things that might have spoiled the party. Several people had wished Kodhi during the day, though his real birthday is on the day after tomorrow. At 645 pm, aadisht had called him, asking “so howz the party”. My dead phone had let me down again – aadisht had assumed that the party had started since I wasn’t picking up. And aadisht had wriggled out of it in a way that only he can.

Lights were dimmed, and people stood ready with the cameras. I couldn’t join them – the battery was down, remember? We were told that they were at the entrance of the hotel. And we made sure Kodhi would enter first. And stood waiting.

The look on Kodhi’s face as he entered the hall and looked us at and realized what was happenign was, well, priceless. That look on his face totally made our day.

(i must apologize for this badly written piece. I fell asleep as i was writing it and just went through the motions)?